Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update
Introduction
The first year of the second Trump administration has seen dramatic changes in immigration policy, resulting in a sharp slowdown in net migration to the United States. We expect the pattern of restrictive policy and increased enforcement to continue or intensify through the coming year. Building on work released in late 2024 and mid-2025, we use available data combined with judgment to estimate a range of likely outcomes for net migration for the years 2025 and 2026. We conclude that net migration was likely close to zero or negative over calendar year 2025 for the first time in at least half a century. Specifically, we estimate that net migration was between –295,000 and -10,000 for the year. For 2026, we project net migration is likely to remain in negative territory. These figures come with the caveat that recent reductions in data transparency make the estimates more uncertain.
The downward population pressure stemming from negative net migration has important implications for the macroeconomy. In recent years, growth in the U.S.-born working-age population has been weak, and nearly all growth in the labor force has stemmed from immigration flows. The 2022–24 immigration surge was accompanied by robust job growth, with immigrants both supplying labor and generating demand for goods and services. Conversely, the recent slowdown in population growth has affected the level of employment growth consistent with an unchanged unemployment rate, often called “breakeven employment growth.” We estimate that, in the second half of 2025, breakeven employment growth of 20,000 to 50,000 jobs each month was consistent with immigration flows. That number could dip into negative territory over 2026. Reduced immigration also has modest dampening effects on GDP and will weaken consumer spending by an estimated $60–$110 billion combined over the two years.
Immigration flows in 2025 and 2026
To estimate net migration, we separately consider inflows and outflows in “low immigration” and “high immigration” scenarios. Though deportations and other exits receive more media attention, a slowdown in new arrivals, especially via humanitarian parole and refugee programs and across the Southwest border, has a bigger effect on reducing migration flows in 2025.
Our results suggest that net immigration likely ranged between –295,000 and –10,000 for 2025. For 2026, we project that net immigration will likely range between –925,000 and +185,000. In Figure 1, we compare those outcomes to net immigration since 2020, a year when immigration was constrained because of the pandemic. After reaching a roughly normal pace in 2021, immigration surged from 2022 to 2024.
Inflows – Green cards issued abroad. The U.S. issues a variety of permanent visas—including family-based green cards, employment-based green cards, and diversity visas. Roughly half are issued to those already living in the United States. Monthly totals of green cards issued to individuals abroad are released by the U.S. State Department. The data have not been updated since May 2025. We can, however, see a marked year-over-year decline of more than 20% by May 2025 relative to May 2024. The average of April and May was 82% of the previous April and May.
We assume in the high-immigration scenario that monthly green cards issued from June through December 2025 are 82% of what they were for the same month in 2024. In the low scenario, we assume the number was further reduced to 95% of the high scenario. The resulting estimate is that there were 560,000 to 575,000 green cards issued abroad in 2025, compared to about 670,000 in 2024.
For 2026, we assume that green card inflows could continue to fall as the result of January 1 expansions in the list of countries under full or partial travel bans, increased vetting and paperwork, and other forms of sand in the gears. In the low scenario, we assume 2026 flows will reach only 87.5% of 2025 low scenario flows, or about 490,000. The travel ban is expected to affect 20% of immigrants, but for some categories of immigrants, they likely will be replaced by immigrants from other countries, so we assumed a smaller than 20% drop-off in the category. In the high scenario, we assume the total number of green cards will continue at its 2025 high level, or 575,000, reflecting the possibility that the policy will not be implemented.
Inflows – Refugees. Though some refugees were likely admitted in early January 2025, the current administration has all but suspended the refugee program, with an exception for an unknown number of white South Africans. Data on the number of refugees are no longer publicly available. We assume that the total number of refugees for 2025 was between 7,600 and 12,000 and that the 2026 number will fall to between 1,200 and 7,500. For comparison, around 105,000 refugees were admitted in 2024.
Inflows – Temporary visas. The U.S. admits a large number of people through various non-immigrant (temporary) visa programs — including student visas, temporary work visas such as the H-2A and H-1B, and a variety of others. Excluding those for short-term tourism and business, about 2.17 million non-immigrant visas were issued in 2024. Data have not been released since May 2025, but year-over-year comparison suggests a monthly slowdown. In the high scenario, we assume the April-May reduction to 89% of the prior year monthly values persists for the rest of the year. In the low scenario, the figure is further reduced to 95% of the high scenario. The resulting range is 1.94–1.99 million temporary visa inflows.
For 2026, the low scenario assumes the number will decline further to 85% of the 2025 value, reflecting travel bans and other deterrents for a range of 1.65–1.99 million.
Inflows – Parole and notices to appear. Between 2022 and summer 2024, large numbers of border arrivals at or between ports of entry were allowed to enter the U.S., often granted a temporary parole status or given a notice to appear (NTA) in immigration court. Many of these arrivals expressed fear of returning to their home country and intended to pursue an asylum claim once in the United States.
These inflows fell substantially after a change in border policy in mid-2024 and have fallen further still with the new administration’s policies. The administration has not been considering most credible fear claims which would allow people to petition for asylum. It has also eliminated Biden-era humanitarian parole programs. Border information is updated monthly, so we have a good estimate of 2025 parole/NTA inflows at around 67,000 to 70,000, with many of those in the first month of the year. For comparison, the 2024 number was 1.41 million. For 2026, we assume these border entries will remain low at 26,000 to 53,000.
Source: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/macroeconomic-implications-of-immigration-flows-in-2025-and-2026-january-2026-update/
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